Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 56.71%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 18.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.66%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (7.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.
