SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 68.96%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 10.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.14%) and 3-0 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.24%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (4.88%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
68.96% ( 0.06) | 20.54% ( -0.03) | 10.49% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 37.28% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.89% ( 0.06) | 55.11% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.63% ( 0.05) | 76.37% ( -0.04) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.95% ( 0.04) | 15.05% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.45% ( 0.07) | 43.55% ( -0.07) |
| Plaza Colonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 43.89% ( -0.01) | 56.11% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 11.46% ( -0) | 88.54% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
| 1-0 @ 15.99% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 15.14% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 9.56% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.75% 3-1 @ 5.52% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.62% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.6% ( 0)5-1 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 2.55% Total : 68.96% | 1-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.45% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 2.53% ( -0)Other @ 0.33% Total : 20.54% | 0-1 @ 4.88% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 2.67% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.41% ( -0)Other @ 1.53% Total : 10.49% |
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