Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Nacional and Defensor Sporting.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 45.68%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 27.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
