Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 63.71%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 13.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.03%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.35%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.1) 
