SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 44.39%. A win for La Luz had a probability of 28.25% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (8.53%). The likeliest La Luz win was 0-1 (9.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fenix | Draw | La Luz |
44.39% ( 0.18) | 27.36% ( 0.1) | 28.25% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 47.43% ( -0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.33% ( -0.5) | 57.66% ( 0.5) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.57% ( -0.4) | 78.42% ( 0.4) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.15% ( -0.13) | 25.84% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.18% ( -0.18) | 60.81% ( 0.18) |
| La Luz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.95% ( -0.49) | 36.04% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.17% ( -0.51) | 72.82% ( 0.51) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fenix | Draw | La Luz |
| 1-0 @ 12.6% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 8.7% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 3.93% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.33% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.3% ( 0)Other @ 2.15% Total : 44.38% | 1-1 @ 12.86% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.32% ( 0.18)2-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.36% | 0-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 6.56% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 4.85% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.94% Total : 28.25% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PenarolPenarol | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 34 |
| 2 | NacionalNacional | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 11 | 17 | 29 |
| 3 | Defensor SportingDefensor | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Montevideo WanderersWanderers | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
| 6 | LiverpoolLiverpool | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | River PlateRiver Plate | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 20 |
| 8 | Deportivo MaldonadoMaldonado | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 20 |
| 9 | La Luz | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Montevideo City TorqueTorque | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
| 11 | DanubioDanubio | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Racing de MontevideoRacing | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 15 |
| 13 | Plaza ColoniaPlaza Colonia | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 15 |
| 14 | Boston RiverBoston River | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 14 |
| 15 | CerroCerro | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 13 |
| 16 | FenixFenix | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 12 |
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