Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 38.46%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 33.78% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 (10.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.
-0.12) 
0.15) 
