SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luzern win with a probability of 38.24%. A win for Basel had a probability of 37.5% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luzern win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.47%) and 0-2 (5.65%). The likeliest Basel win was 2-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Basel | Draw | Luzern |
37.5% ( 0.12) | 24.26% ( 0.22) | 38.24% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 60.5% ( -0.82) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.88% ( -1.06) | 42.12% ( 1.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.47% ( -1.07) | 64.53% ( 1.07) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.6% ( -0.41) | 22.41% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.08% ( -0.62) | 55.92% ( 0.62) |
| Luzern Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.97% ( -0.63) | 22.03% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.65% ( -0.97) | 55.36% ( 0.97) |
| Score Analysis |
| Basel | Draw | Luzern |
| 2-1 @ 8.35% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 7.38% ( 0.26)2-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 4.17% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 2.75% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.56% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.03% ( -0)Other @ 2.41% Total : 37.5% | 1-1 @ 11.16% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 6.32% ( -0.1)0-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.23)3-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.25% | 1-2 @ 8.45% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.47% ( 0.21)0-2 @ 5.65% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 4.26% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 3.19% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.61% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.07)0-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.49% Total : 38.24% |
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