Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 52.86%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Palermo had a probability of 21.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Palermo win it was 0-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.
0.2) 
-0.28) 
