Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carrarese win with a probability of 40.87%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carrarese win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.08%) and 2-1 (7.98%). The likeliest Brescia win was 0-1 (11.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.