Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 40.12%. A win for Catanzaro had a probability of 32.92% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Catanzaro win was 0-1 (9.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
0.23) 
-0.02) 
