Lacking both the rhythm and spark of last season, Napoli are no longer the formidable force that swept aside all-comers up and down the Italian peninsula. They should, though, have enough in the tank to take care of goal-shy and injury-ravaged opponents on Wednesday; forcing Udinese to wait a little longer for an elusive first victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 64.29%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Udinese had a probability of 15.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.32%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a Udinese win it was 0-1 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
0.59) 
-0.15) 
