SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 62.22%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 15.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.24%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.5%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bologna | Draw | Cagliari |
62.22% ( -0.45) | 22.24% ( 0.25) | 15.54% ( 0.19) |
| Both teams to score 45.72% ( -0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.61% ( -0.66) | 51.38% ( 0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.8% ( -0.58) | 73.2% ( 0.58) |
| Bologna Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.99% ( -0.37) | 16% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.67% ( -0.69) | 45.32% ( 0.69) |
| Cagliari Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.43% ( -0.13) | 45.57% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.61% ( -0.11) | 81.38% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bologna | Draw | Cagliari |
| 1-0 @ 13.36% ( 0.19) 2-0 @ 12.24% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 7.48% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 5.88% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 3.43% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 2.69% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 2.31% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 1.26% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.91% Total : 62.22% | 1-1 @ 10.5% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 7.29% ( 0.19)2-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.66% Total : 22.24% | 0-1 @ 5.73% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 4.13% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.25% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.08% ( 0)2-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.36% Total : 15.54% |
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