Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 35.93%. A win for Ponferradina had a probability of 35.24% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.52%) and 0-2 (6.76%). The likeliest Ponferradina win was 1-0 (11.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
