SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugo win with a probability of 42.15%. A win for Villarreal II had a probability of 29.29% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.31%) and 2-1 (8.21%). The likeliest Villarreal II win was 0-1 (10.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lugo | Draw | Villarreal II |
42.15% ( -0.15) | 28.56% ( -0.04) | 29.29% ( 0.2) |
| Both teams to score 44.69% ( 0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.61% ( 0.2) | 61.39% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.72% ( 0.15) | 81.28% ( -0.15) |
| Lugo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.22% ( 0.02) | 28.78% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.37% ( 0.02) | 64.63% ( -0.02) |
| Villarreal II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.75% ( 0.27) | 37.25% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.97% ( 0.26) | 74.04% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lugo | Draw | Villarreal II |
| 1-0 @ 13.35% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 8.31% ( -0.06)2-1 @ 8.21% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.45% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.41% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.08% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.06% ( 0)Other @ 1.6% Total : 42.15% | 1-1 @ 13.18% 0-0 @ 10.72% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 4.05% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.6% Total : 28.55% | 0-1 @ 10.58% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.51% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 5.23% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.76% Total : 29.28% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 30 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 57 |
| 2 | EibarEibar | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 33 | 23 | 10 | 56 |
| 3 | Granada | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 20 | 19 | 54 |
| 4 | Levante | 30 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 35 | 22 | 13 | 54 |
| 5 | AlavesAlaves | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 39 | 26 | 13 | 53 |
| 6 | Albacete | 30 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 50 |
| 7 | Burgos | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 45 |
| 8 | CartagenaCartagena | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 44 |
| 9 | Huesca | 30 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 40 |
| 10 | Leganes | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 40 |
| 11 | Villarreal II | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 40 |
| 12 | MirandesMirandes | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 37 |
| 13 | TenerifeTenerife | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 37 |
| 14 | FC AndorraFC Andorra | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 36 |
| 15 | Sporting GijonSporting Gijon | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 36 |
| 16 | Racing de SantanderRacing | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 36 |
| 17 | Real ZaragozaZaragoza | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 35 |
| 18 | Real Oviedo | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 35 |
| 19 | PonferradinaPonferradina | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 29 |
| 20 | Malaga | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 25 |
| 21 | LugoLugo | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 23 |
| 22 | UD Ibiza | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 23 |
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