Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 56.97%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 19.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.66%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.17%), while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 0-1 (6.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.