SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 36.37%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.44%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 0-1 (12.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Santa Clara |
36.37% ( 0.06) | 29.31% ( -0.03) | 34.31% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 43.97% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.1% ( 0.09) | 62.9% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.6% ( 0.07) | 82.4% ( -0.07) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67% ( 0.09) | 33% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.41% ( 0.1) | 69.59% ( -0.1) |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.63% ( 0.03) | 34.37% ( -0.03) |
