SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 80.23%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 6.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.31%) and 1-0 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.19%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (2.29%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
80.23% ( -0.13) | 13.04% ( 0.08) | 6.73% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 45.48% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.53% ( -0.24) | 34.47% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.61% ( -0.27) | 56.39% ( 0.27) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.32% ( -0.08) | 6.68% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 75.25% ( -0.21) | 24.75% ( 0.2) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.73% ( -0.05) | 51.27% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.48% ( -0.03) | 85.52% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 2-0 @ 12.53% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 11.31% 1-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.07)2-1 @ 8.38% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 7.65% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 7.56% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 5.11% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 2.77% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.87% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.71% ( -0.01)6-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.23% Total : 80.22% | 1-1 @ 6.19% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 3.42% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 2.8% ( 0)Other @ 0.63% Total : 13.04% | 0-1 @ 2.29% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.38% Total : 6.73% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 31 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 72 | 17 | 55 | 80 |
| 2 | Porto | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 73 |
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 71 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 61 | 28 | 33 | 64 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 47 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 13 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
| 9 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 40 |
| 11 | Vizela | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 10 | 4 | 17 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 31 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 29 | 58 | -29 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 52 | -29 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 19 |
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