SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 39.06%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 37.15% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.02%) and 0-2 (5.54%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 2-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Brighton & Hove Albion |
37.15% ( 0.16) | 23.79% ( 0.03) | 39.06% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 62.25% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.15% ( -0.12) | 39.84% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.8% ( -0.13) | 62.2% ( 0.13) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.44% ( 0.03) | 21.56% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.36% ( 0.05) | 54.64% ( -0.05) |
| Brighton & Hove Albion Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.37% ( -0.14) | 20.63% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.8% ( -0.23) | 53.2% ( 0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 5.24% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.23% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.34% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.62% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.28% 4-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.66% Total : 37.15% | 1-1 @ 10.77% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.52% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.45% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.79% | 1-2 @ 8.5% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.02% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.54% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.47% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.43% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.77% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.91% Total : 39.06% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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