SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kosovo win with a probability of 43.62%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 29.36% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kosovo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.75%) and 0-2 (8.16%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Kosovo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lithuania | Draw | Kosovo |
29.36% ( 0.1) | 27.02% ( -0) | 43.62% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 49.01% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.07% ( 0.05) | 55.93% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.97% ( 0.04) | 77.03% ( -0.05) |
| Lithuania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.74% ( 0.11) | 34.26% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.04% ( 0.11) | 70.96% ( -0.12) |
| Kosovo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.55% ( -0.03) | 25.44% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.73% ( -0.04) | 60.27% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lithuania | Draw | Kosovo |
| 1-0 @ 9.34% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 6.85% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.45% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.79% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.67% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.27% Total : 29.36% | 1-1 @ 12.78% 0-0 @ 8.72% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.69% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.84% Total : 27.02% | 0-1 @ 11.93% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.75% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 8.16% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.99% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.72% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.14% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.37% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.29% Total : 43.62% |
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