Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belarus win with a probability of 46.5%. A win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 31.37% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belarus win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.11%) and 2-0 (5.82%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win was 1-2 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.