SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ebbsfleet win with a probability of 63.84%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Worthing had a probability of 16.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ebbsfleet win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.48%), while for a Worthing win it was 0-1 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 7-2 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ebbsfleet would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ebbsfleet | Draw | Worthing |
63.84% ( 0.08) | 20.12% ( -0.02) | 16.04% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 53.54% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.5% ( -0.04) | 41.5% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.1% ( -0.04) | 63.9% ( 0.04) |
| Ebbsfleet Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.67% ( 0.01) | 12.33% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.86% ( 0.03) | 38.14% ( -0.02) |
| Worthing Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.07% ( -0.11) | 38.93% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.35% ( -0.1) | 75.65% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ebbsfleet | Draw | Worthing |
| 2-0 @ 10.51% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0)3-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 6.92% ( 0)4-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.62% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.71% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.61% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.52% ( 0)Other @ 3.54% Total : 63.83% | 1-1 @ 9.48% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.68% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 20.12% | 0-1 @ 4.53% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.14% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.02% Total : 16.04% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ebbsfleet | 44 | 31 | 7 | 6 | 103 | 44 | 59 | 100 |
| 2 | DartfordDartford | 43 | 24 | 7 | 12 | 78 | 46 | 32 | 79 |
| 3 | Oxford CityOxford City | 44 | 21 | 14 | 9 | 81 | 53 | 28 | 77 |
| 4 | Chelmsford CityChelmsford City | 44 | 23 | 8 | 13 | 66 | 47 | 19 | 77 |
| 5 | St Albans CitySt Albans City | 44 | 21 | 9 | 14 | 69 | 49 | 20 | 72 |
| 6 | Worthing | 43 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 85 | 68 | 17 | 72 |
| 7 | Braintree TownBraintree | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 63 | 54 | 9 | 70 |
| 8 | Eastbourne BoroughEastbourne | 44 | 21 | 5 | 18 | 72 | 63 | 9 | 68 |
| 9 | Havant & WaterloovilleHavant & W'ville | 43 | 18 | 11 | 14 | 75 | 63 | 12 | 65 |
| 10 | Farnborough Town | 43 | 18 | 9 | 16 | 55 | 48 | 7 | 63 |
| 11 | Tonbridge AngelsTonbridge Angels | 43 | 18 | 9 | 16 | 63 | 66 | -3 | 63 |
| 12 | Bath City | 43 | 17 | 10 | 16 | 59 | 53 | 6 | 61 |
| 13 | Hemel Hempstead TownHemel Hempstead | 44 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 59 |
| 14 | Chippenham TownChippenham | 44 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 54 | 64 | -10 | 58 |
| 15 | Taunton TownTaunton Town | 43 | 15 | 10 | 18 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 55 |
| 16 | Hampton & RichmondHampton | 43 | 15 | 8 | 20 | 59 | 66 | -7 | 53 |
| 17 | Slough TownSlough | 44 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 57 | 75 | -18 | 50 |
| 18 | Welling UnitedWelling United | 43 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 49 |
| 19 | Dover AthleticDover Athletic | 44 | 12 | 12 | 20 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 48 |
| 20 | Dulwich HamletDulwich Hamlet | 43 | 13 | 7 | 23 | 60 | 87 | -27 | 46 |
| 21 | Cheshunt | 43 | 10 | 10 | 23 | 46 | 70 | -24 | 40 |
| 22 | Hungerford TownHungerford | 43 | 10 | 9 | 24 | 46 | 64 | -18 | 39 |
| 23 | Weymouth | 43 | 11 | 6 | 26 | 52 | 77 | -25 | 39 |
| 24 | Concord Rangers | 41 | 10 | 7 | 24 | 36 | 77 | -41 | 37 |
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