SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ebbsfleet win with a probability of 57.36%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Chelmsford City had a probability of 20.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ebbsfleet win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.92%) and 2-0 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.52%), while for a Chelmsford City win it was 0-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ebbsfleet would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ebbsfleet | Draw | Chelmsford City |
57.36% ( -1.32) | 22.31% ( 0.36) | 20.33% ( 0.96) |
| Both teams to score 54.49% ( 0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.7% ( -0.23) | 44.3% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.32% ( -0.23) | 66.67% ( 0.22) |
| Ebbsfleet Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.8% ( -0.51) | 15.2% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.17% ( -0.97) | 43.83% ( 0.96) |
| Chelmsford City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.26% ( 0.86) | 35.74% ( -0.86) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.48% ( 0.87) | 72.51% ( -0.88) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ebbsfleet | Draw | Chelmsford City |
| 1-0 @ 10.23% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 9.64% ( -0.25)3-1 @ 6.23% ( -0.13)3-0 @ 6.05% ( -0.27)3-2 @ 3.21% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.93% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.18)4-2 @ 1.51% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.11% ( -0.06)5-0 @ 1.08% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.6% Total : 57.35% | 1-1 @ 10.52% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 5.43% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 5.1% ( 0.11)3-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.3% | 0-1 @ 5.59% ( 0.18) 1-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.21)0-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.08)Other @ 1.86% Total : 20.33% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ebbsfleet | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 79 | 34 | 45 | 79 |
| 2 | DartfordDartford | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 35 | 29 | 66 |
| 3 | Oxford CityOxford City | 35 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 60 | 42 | 18 | 60 |
| 4 | Havant & WaterloovilleHavant & W'ville | 32 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 63 | 45 | 18 | 59 |
| 5 | Worthing | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 64 | 49 | 15 | 58 |
| 6 | Braintree TownBraintree | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 51 | 40 | 11 | 58 |
| 7 | Chelmsford CityChelmsford City | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 55 |
| 8 | St Albans CitySt Albans City | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 52 |
| 9 | Tonbridge AngelsTonbridge Angels | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 51 | 51 | 0 | 51 |
| 10 | Farnborough Town | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 48 |
| 11 | Eastbourne BoroughEastbourne | 34 | 15 | 3 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 48 |
| 12 | Bath City | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 45 |
| 13 | Hemel Hempstead TownHemel Hempstead | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 45 |
| 14 | Welling UnitedWelling United | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 41 |
| 15 | Dover AthleticDover Athletic | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 40 |
| 16 | Slough TownSlough | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 39 | 60 | -21 | 36 |
| 17 | Taunton TownTaunton Town | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 33 |
| 18 | Hampton & RichmondHampton | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 32 |
| 19 | Dulwich HamletDulwich Hamlet | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 47 | 68 | -21 | 32 |
| 20 | Cheshunt | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 38 | 59 | -21 | 31 |
| 21 | Chippenham TownChippenham | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 29 |
| 22 | Weymouth | 32 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 39 | 60 | -21 | 28 |
| 23 | Hungerford TownHungerford | 32 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 27 |
| 24 | Concord Rangers | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 27 |
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