SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Concord Rangers win with a probability of 38.8%. A win for Cheshunt had a probability of 35.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Concord Rangers win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.24%). The likeliest Cheshunt win was 0-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Concord Rangers | Draw | Cheshunt |
38.8% ( 0.19) | 25.29% ( -0.04) | 35.91% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 56.66% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.96% ( 0.15) | 47.04% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.71% ( 0.14) | 69.29% ( -0.14) |
| Concord Rangers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.07% ( 0.17) | 23.93% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.84% ( 0.24) | 58.16% ( -0.24) |
| Cheshunt Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.49% ( -0.02) | 25.51% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.64% ( -0.02) | 60.36% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Concord Rangers | Draw | Cheshunt |
| 1-0 @ 8.73% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.53% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 6.24% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.06% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.78% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.45% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.98% Total : 38.8% | 1-1 @ 11.92% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.11% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.82% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.28% | 0-1 @ 8.34% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 8.15% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.7% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.71% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.65% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.27% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 2.6% Total : 35.91% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ebbsfleet | 32 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 76 | 33 | 43 | 73 |
| 2 | DartfordDartford | 32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 63 | 35 | 28 | 62 |
| 3 | Havant & WaterloovilleHavant & W'ville | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 63 | 41 | 22 | 59 |
| 4 | Oxford CityOxford City | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 59 | 41 | 18 | 58 |
| 5 | St Albans CitySt Albans City | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 52 |
| 6 | Worthing | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 56 | 48 | 8 | 52 |
| 7 | Braintree TownBraintree | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 48 | 40 | 8 | 52 |
| 8 | Chelmsford CityChelmsford City | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 38 | 30 | 8 | 52 |
| 9 | Eastbourne BoroughEastbourne | 32 | 15 | 3 | 14 | 53 | 49 | 4 | 48 |
| 10 | Tonbridge AngelsTonbridge Angels | 32 | 14 | 6 | 12 | 50 | 50 | 0 | 48 |
| 11 | Farnborough Town | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 35 | 27 | 8 | 45 |
| 12 | Bath City | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 43 | 42 | 1 | 42 |
| 13 | Hemel Hempstead TownHemel Hempstead | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 41 |
| 14 | Welling UnitedWelling United | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 40 |
| 15 | Dover AthleticDover Athletic | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 37 |
| 16 | Slough TownSlough | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 58 | -21 | 33 |
| 17 | Taunton TownTaunton Town | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 32 |
| 18 | Dulwich HamletDulwich Hamlet | 31 | 9 | 5 | 17 | 47 | 60 | -13 | 32 |
| 19 | Cheshunt | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 37 | 58 | -21 | 28 |
| 20 | Chippenham TownChippenham | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 27 |
| 21 | Concord Rangers | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 47 | -19 | 27 |
| 22 | Hampton & RichmondHampton | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 54 | -18 | 26 |
| 23 | Weymouth | 30 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 33 | 57 | -24 | 25 |
| 24 | Hungerford TownHungerford | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 24 |
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