SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bath City win with a probability of 60.65%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Hungerford Town had a probability of 17.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bath City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.49%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.22%), while for a Hungerford Town win it was 0-1 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bath City | Draw | Hungerford Town |
60.65% ( 1.42) | 21.57% ( -0.75) | 17.78% ( -0.67) |
| Both teams to score 52.41% ( 1.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.15% ( 2.19) | 44.84% ( -2.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.8% ( 2.07) | 67.2% ( -2.08) |
| Bath City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.67% ( 1.18) | 14.33% ( -1.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.83% ( 2.25) | 42.16% ( -2.26) |
| Hungerford Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.18% ( 0.52) | 38.82% ( -0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.45% ( 0.49) | 75.55% ( -0.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bath City | Draw | Hungerford Town |
| 1-0 @ 10.8% ( -0.57) 2-0 @ 10.49% ( -0.1)2-1 @ 9.93% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.22)3-1 @ 6.43% ( 0.29)4-0 @ 3.3% ( 0.24)4-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.26)3-2 @ 3.04% ( 0.18)4-2 @ 1.48% ( 0.15)5-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.14)5-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.15)Other @ 2.73% Total : 60.63% | 1-1 @ 10.22% ( -0.39) 0-0 @ 5.56% ( -0.54)2-2 @ 4.7% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.12% Total : 21.56% | 0-1 @ 5.26% ( -0.43) 1-2 @ 4.84% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.17)1-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.19% Total : 17.79% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Ebbsfleet | 45 | 31 | 7 | 7 | 105 | 47 | 58 | 100 |
| 2 | DartfordDartford | 45 | 25 | 7 | 13 | 82 | 50 | 32 | 82 |
| 3 | Oxford CityOxford City | 45 | 21 | 15 | 9 | 82 | 54 | 28 | 78 |
| 4 | Chelmsford CityChelmsford City | 45 | 23 | 9 | 13 | 66 | 47 | 19 | 78 |
| 5 | Braintree TownBraintree | 45 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 65 | 54 | 11 | 73 |
| 6 | St Albans CitySt Albans City | 45 | 21 | 9 | 15 | 70 | 51 | 19 | 72 |
| 7 | Worthing | 44 | 20 | 12 | 12 | 87 | 71 | 16 | 72 |
| 8 | Eastbourne BoroughEastbourne | 45 | 21 | 5 | 19 | 72 | 65 | 7 | 68 |
| 9 | Havant & WaterloovilleHavant & W'ville | 44 | 18 | 12 | 14 | 76 | 64 | 12 | 66 |
| 10 | Farnborough Town | 44 | 19 | 9 | 16 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 66 |
| 11 | Tonbridge AngelsTonbridge Angels | 44 | 18 | 10 | 16 | 65 | 68 | -3 | 64 |
| 12 | Bath City | 44 | 17 | 10 | 17 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 61 |
| 13 | Hemel Hempstead TownHemel Hempstead | 45 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 60 |
| 14 | Chippenham TownChippenham | 45 | 14 | 17 | 14 | 56 | 66 | -10 | 59 |
| 15 | Taunton TownTaunton Town | 44 | 16 | 10 | 18 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 58 |
| 16 | Hampton & RichmondHampton | 44 | 15 | 8 | 21 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 53 |
| 17 | Welling UnitedWelling United | 44 | 13 | 14 | 17 | 51 | 63 | -12 | 52 |
| 18 | Slough TownSlough | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 57 | 77 | -20 | 50 |
| 19 | Dover AthleticDover Athletic | 45 | 12 | 12 | 21 | 42 | 66 | -24 | 48 |
| 20 | Dulwich HamletDulwich Hamlet | 44 | 13 | 8 | 23 | 61 | 88 | -27 | 47 |
| 21 | Cheshunt | 44 | 11 | 10 | 23 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 43 |
| 22 | Concord Rangers | 43 | 12 | 7 | 24 | 41 | 79 | -38 | 43 |
| 23 | Weymouth | 44 | 12 | 6 | 26 | 54 | 77 | -23 | 42 |
| R | Hungerford TownHungerford | 44 | 10 | 10 | 24 | 47 | 65 | -18 | 40 |
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