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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Toronto | 24 | -8 | 26 |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 24 | -10 | 25 |
| 9 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | -17 | 23 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 24 | 23 | 45 |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 24 | 3 | 40 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 24 | 6 | 37 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 42.11%. A win for CF Montreal had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest CF Montreal win was 0-1 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Houston Dynamo | Draw | CF Montreal |
42.11% ( -0.01) | 25.79% ( -0.07) | 32.1% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 54.05% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.98% ( 0.3) | 50.01% ( -0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28% ( 0.26) | 71.99% ( -0.26) |
| Houston Dynamo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.42% ( 0.12) | 23.57% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.36% ( 0.18) | 57.63% ( -0.18) |
| CF Montreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.72% ( 0.2) | 29.27% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.76% ( 0.24) | 65.24% ( -0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Houston Dynamo | Draw | CF Montreal |
| 1-0 @ 9.97% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8.85% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.47% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.54% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.25% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.99% Total : 42.11% | 1-1 @ 12.25% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.9% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.79% | 0-1 @ 8.48% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.52% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.08% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.13% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.51% Total : 32.1% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 32 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 54 | 37 | 17 | 65 |
| 2 | Orlando City | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 50 | 37 | 13 | 57 |
| 3 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 56 | 39 | 17 | 54 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 53 |
| 5 | New England RevolutionNew England | 31 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 52 |
| 6 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 63 | 50 | 13 | 49 |
| 7 | Nashville SCNashville | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 45 |
| 8 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 40 |
| 9 | New York City FCNY City | 32 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 38 |
| 10 | CF MontrealMontreal | 32 | 11 | 5 | 16 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 38 |
| 11 | DC United | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 43 | 49 | -6 | 37 |
| 12 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 37 |
| 13 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 40 | 50 | -10 | 36 |
| 14 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 33 |
| 15 | Toronto | 32 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 22 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | St Louis City | 33 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 62 | 43 | 19 | 56 |
| 2 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 49 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 49 | 36 | 13 | 48 |
| 4 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 54 | 47 | 7 | 46 |
| 5 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 46 |
| 6 | Houston DynamoHouston | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 43 | 36 | 7 | 45 |
| 7 | Portland TimbersPortland | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 43 |
| 8 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
| 9 | Dallas | 31 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 41 |
| 10 | Austin FCAustin | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 38 |
| 11 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 38 |
| 12 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 38 |
| 13 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 35 |
| 14 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 24 | 47 | -23 | 26 |
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