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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Los Angeles FC | 19 | 17 | 39 |
| 2 | Austin FC | 19 | 16 | 37 |
| 3 | Real Salt Lake | 19 | 0 | 30 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | New England Revolution | 19 | -1 | 25 |
| 6 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | -1 | 22 |
| 7 | Toronto | 19 | -10 | 19 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 58.44%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 20.14%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.17%) and 2-0 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.95%), while for a Houston Dynamo win it was 1-2 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Austin FC | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
58.44% ( 1.34) | 21.42% ( -0.49) | 20.14% ( -0.85) |
| Both teams to score 57.19% ( 0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.43% ( 1.06) | 40.57% ( -1.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.05% ( 1.08) | 62.95% ( -1.08) |
| Austin FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.38% ( 0.77) | 13.61% ( -0.77) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 59.24% ( 1.51) | 40.76% ( -1.51) |
| Houston Dynamo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.2% ( -0.22) | 33.79% ( 0.22) |
