Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bastia win with a probability of 41.5%. A win for Metz had a probability of 29.71% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bastia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.2%) and 2-1 (8.1%). The likeliest Metz win was 0-1 (10.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
-0.09) 
0.1) 
