SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 54.09%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 24.3% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.5%) and 0-1 (7.49%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 2-1 (6.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Lyon in this match.
| Result | ||
| Montpellier HSC | Draw | Lyon |
24.3% ( -0.14) | 21.61% ( -0.25) | 54.09% ( 0.38) |
| Both teams to score 62.52% ( 0.74) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.76% ( 1.04) | 36.24% ( -1.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.64% ( 1.13) | 58.35% ( -1.13) |
| Montpellier HSC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.28% ( 0.46) | 27.72% ( -0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.72% ( 0.59) | 63.28% ( -0.59) |
| Lyon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.5% ( 0.47) | 13.5% ( -0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.46% ( 0.94) | 40.54% ( -0.94) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montpellier HSC | Draw | Lyon |
| 2-1 @ 6.17% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 4.8% ( -0.19)2-0 @ 3.08% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 2.64% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.65% Total : 24.3% | 1-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 6.18% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 3.74% ( -0.2)3-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.31% Total : 21.61% | 1-2 @ 9.63% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 7.5% ( -0.12)0-1 @ 7.49% ( -0.26)1-3 @ 6.43% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 5.01% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 4.12% ( 0.11)1-4 @ 3.22% ( 0.1)0-4 @ 2.51% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 2.06% ( 0.09)1-5 @ 1.29% ( 0.06)0-5 @ 1% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.84% Total : 54.09% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 76 | 34 | 42 | 75 |
| 2 | Lens | 34 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 72 |
| 3 | Marseille | 34 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 62 | 34 | 28 | 70 |
| 4 | MonacoMonaco | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 64 |
| 5 | Lille | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 41 | 19 | 59 |
| 6 | Rennes | 34 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 56 | 38 | 18 | 56 |
| 7 | Lyon | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 57 | 41 | 16 | 56 |
| 8 | Nice | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 42 | 32 | 10 | 51 |
| 9 | Lorient | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 51 |
| 10 | Reims | 34 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 50 |
| 11 | Clermont | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 50 |
| 12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 34 | 13 | 4 | 17 | 56 | 57 | -1 | 43 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 48 | 55 | -7 | 42 |
| 14 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 35 |
| 15 | Brest | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 35 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 32 | 56 | -24 | 34 |
| 17 | NantesNantes | 34 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 32 |
| 18 | Ajaccio | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 61 | -39 | 23 |
| 19 | Troyes | 33 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 22 |
| R | Angers | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 28 | 74 | -46 | 14 |
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