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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 16
Jan 5, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Velodrome
LH

Marseille
5 - 1
Le Havre

Rongier (25'), Nadir (39'), Maupay (43'), Wahi (66'), Garcia (75')
Nadir (45+5')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Ayew (85')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: St Etienne 0-4 Marseille
Sunday, December 22 at 1.45pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Stade Briochin 1-0 Le Havre
Saturday, December 21 at 2.30pm in Coupe de France

We said: Marseille 2-0 Le Havre

Marseille and Le Havre have experienced contrasting seasons so far, with the hosts being second while the visitors are second from bottom. Given that Digard's side have earned almost all of their points against teams near the foot of the table, it is difficult to see them winning this weekend, and considering that they have yet to draw a single game this term, it is unlikely they will manage to avoid defeat against De Zerbi's men either. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 62.14%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Le Havre had a probability of 16.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.11%), while for a Le Havre win it was 0-1 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
MarseilleDrawLe Havre
62.14% (0.123 0.12) 21.29% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04) 16.58% (-0.084 -0.08)
Both teams to score 50.85% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.31% (0.024000000000001 0.02)45.68% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.99% (0.023 0.02)68.01% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.86% (0.045999999999992 0.05)14.14% (-0.046000000000001 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.21% (0.089999999999996 0.09)41.79% (-0.088999999999999 -0.09)
Le Havre Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.22% (-0.090000000000003 -0.09)40.78% (0.091000000000001 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.64% (-0.084 -0.08)77.36% (0.082999999999998 0.08)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 62.12%
    Le Havre 16.58%
    Draw 21.28%
MarseilleDrawLe Havre
1-0 @ 11.27%
2-0 @ 11.03% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 9.9% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
3-0 @ 7.2% (0.029 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.45% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
4-0 @ 3.52% (0.02 0.02)
4-1 @ 3.16% (0.01 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.89% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
4-2 @ 1.42%
5-0 @ 1.38% (0.01 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.24% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 62.12%
1-1 @ 10.11% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 5.77% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.44% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 0.97%
Total : 21.28%
0-1 @ 5.17% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-2 @ 4.54% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.32% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.36% (-0.01 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.33% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 16.58%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: St Etienne 0-4 Marseille
Sunday, December 22 at 1.45pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Marseille 1-1 Lille
Saturday, December 14 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: St Etienne 0-2 Marseille
Sunday, December 8 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 2-1 Monaco
Sunday, December 1 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Lens 1-3 Marseille
Saturday, November 23 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 1-3 Auxerre
Friday, November 8 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Stade Briochin 1-0 Le Havre
Saturday, December 21 at 2.30pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Le Havre 0-3 Strasbourg
Sunday, December 15 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Nice 2-1 Le Havre
Saturday, December 7 at 6pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Le Havre 0-1 Angers
Sunday, December 1 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Nantes 0-2 Le Havre
Sunday, November 24 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Le Havre 0-3 Reims
Sunday, November 10 at 4pm in Ligue 1


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