SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 62.58%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 17.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 1-0 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.46%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 1-2 (4.74%). The actual scoreline of 5-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lyon | Draw | Montpellier HSC |
62.58% ( 0.02) | 20.26% ( -0.02) | 17.15% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 55.56% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.94% ( 0.08) | 40.05% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.57% ( 0.09) | 62.42% ( -0.08) |
| Lyon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.75% ( 0.03) | 12.24% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 62.04% ( 0.06) | 37.96% ( -0.06) |
| Montpellier HSC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.31% ( 0.05) | 36.69% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.52% ( 0.05) | 73.48% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lyon | Draw | Montpellier HSC |
| 2-1 @ 9.93% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.91% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 9.43% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 6.95% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.94% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.65% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.64% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.49% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.53% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.53% ( 0)Other @ 3.75% Total : 62.58% | 1-1 @ 9.46% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.98% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.49% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 20.26% | 1-2 @ 4.74% 0-1 @ 4.5% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.26% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.59% ( 0)Other @ 2.4% Total : 17.15% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 37 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 87 | 37 | 50 | 85 |
| 2 | Lens | 37 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 65 | 28 | 37 | 81 |
| 3 | Marseille | 37 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 73 |
| 4 | Lille | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 66 |
| 5 | Rennes | 37 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 67 | 38 | 29 | 65 |
| 6 | MonacoMonaco | 37 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 69 | 56 | 13 | 65 |
| 7 | Lyon | 37 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
| 8 | Clermont | 37 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 56 |
| 9 | Nice | 37 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 55 |
| 10 | Lorient | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 52 |
| 11 | Reims | 37 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 51 |
| 12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 37 | 14 | 5 | 18 | 62 | 61 | 1 | 47 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 45 |
| 14 | Brest | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 44 |
| 15 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 40 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 37 | 8 | 11 | 18 | 34 | 60 | -26 | 35 |
| 17 | NantesNantes | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 33 |
| R | Troyes | 37 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 80 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Ajaccio | 37 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 22 | 74 | -52 | 23 |
| R | Angers | 37 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 33 | 80 | -47 | 18 |
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