Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 48.16%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 26.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.29%) and 2-0 (8.85%). The likeliest Monaco win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
