Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 59.9%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Necaxa had a probability of 18.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.68%) and 1-0 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.95%), while for a Necaxa win it was 1-2 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
Result | ||
Toluca | Draw | Necaxa |
59.9% ( -0.52) | 21.24% ( 0.09) | 18.86% ( 0.43) |
Both teams to score 55.54% ( 0.51) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.31% ( 0.28) | 41.69% ( -0.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.91% ( 0.28) | 64.09% ( -0.28) |
Toluca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.47% ( -0.06) | 13.53% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.4% ( -0.13) | 40.6% ( 0.13) |
Necaxa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.23% ( 0.63) | 35.76% ( -0.63) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.46% ( 0.65) | 72.54% ( -0.64) |
Score Analysis |
Toluca | Draw | Necaxa |
2-1 @ 9.95% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.68% ( -0.17) 1-0 @ 9.68% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 6.64% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 6.45% ( -0.13) 3-2 @ 3.41% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 3.32% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 3.23% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 1.71% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.21% Total : 59.9% | 1-1 @ 9.95% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.12% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 4.84% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.24% | 1-2 @ 5.12% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 4.98% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.56% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.7% Total : 18.86% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Club AmericaAmerica | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 38 |
2 | MonterreyMonterrey | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 29 | 13 | 16 | 35 |
3 | Santos LagunaSantos Laguna | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38 | 21 | 17 | 33 |
4 | PachucaPachuca | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 32 |
5 | Tigres | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 30 |
6 | TolucaToluca | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 27 |
7 | Cruz AzulCruz Azul | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 24 |
8 | PueblaPuebla | 17 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 22 |
9 | CD GuadalajaraGuadalajara | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
10 | Club Leon | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 22 |
11 | Juarez | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
12 | NecaxaNecaxa | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 19 |
13 | Atletico San Luis | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 18 |
14 | MazatlanMazatlan | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 17 |
15 | Club TijuanaTijuana | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 30 | -12 | 17 |
16 | PumasPumas | 17 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 14 |
17 | Atlas | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 13 |
18 | QueretaroQueretaro | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 35 | -17 | 9 |
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