Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for Necaxa had a probability of 28.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.32%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Necaxa win was 1-0 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
Necaxa	Draw	Toluca
28.96% ( -0.2)	24.67%	46.37% ( 0.2)

Both teams to score 56.13% (

-0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.42% (

-0.11)

46.58% (

0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.15% (

-0.1)

68.85% (

0.1)

Necaxa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.3% (

-0.2)

29.7% (

0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.25% (

-0.24)

65.75% (

0.24)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.83% (

0.04)

20.16% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.55% (

0.06)

52.45% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Necaxa 28.96%

Toluca 46.37%

Draw 24.67%

Necaxa	Draw	Toluca
1-0 @ 7.27% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.07% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 4.41% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 2.86% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.29% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.79% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.27% Total : 28.96%	1-1 @ 11.64% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.66% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.67%	0-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 9.32% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 7.68% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 4.98% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 4.1% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 3.02% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.99% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.64% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0) Other @ 2.85% Total : 46.37%