Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 37.35%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 35.01% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.99%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 0-1 (10.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
