SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 18 | Port Vale | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 19 | Oxford United | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 20 | Wycombe Wanderers | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 21 | MK Dons | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 22 | Morecambe | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 23 | Cheltenham Town | 4 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 63.21%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Morecambe had a probability of 14.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.4%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.31%), while for a Morecambe win it was 0-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Oxford United | Draw | Morecambe |
63.21% ( 3.57) | 21.83% ( -0.96) | 14.96% ( -2.61) |
| Both teams to score 45.61% ( -2.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.18% ( -0.52) | 50.82% ( 0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.29% ( -0.46) | 72.7% ( 0.46) |
| Oxford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.51% ( 1.01) | 15.49% ( -1.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 55.63% ( 1.86) | 44.37% ( -1.86) |
| Morecambe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.96% ( -3.73) | 46.03% ( 3.74) |
