SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 48.67%. A win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 26.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Bolton Wanderers win was 0-1 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Derby County in this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
| 48.67% | 24.5% | 26.83% |
Both teams to score 55.07% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.77% ( -0) | 47.23% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.54% ( -0) | 69.46% ( 0.01) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.54% ( -0) | 19.46% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.68% ( -0) | 51.32% ( 0) |
| Bolton Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.38% ( -0) | 31.62% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 31.97% ( -0) | 68.03% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 10.07% 2-1 @ 9.49% 2-0 @ 8.24% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.18% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.5% 3-2 @ 2.98% 4-1 @ 2.12% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.84% 4-2 @ 1.22% Other @ 3.03% Total : 48.66% | 1-1 @ 11.59% 0-0 @ 6.15% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.46% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.14% Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.5% | 0-1 @ 7.09% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.68% 0-2 @ 4.08% 1-3 @ 2.56% 2-3 @ 2.1% 0-3 @ 1.57% Other @ 2.76% Total : 26.83% |
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