SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charlton Athletic win with a probability of 42.6%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 33.08% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charlton Athletic win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.52%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-2 (7.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Charlton Athletic would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Charlton Athletic | Draw | Exeter City |
42.6% ( -0.44) | 24.31% ( -0) | 33.08% ( 0.44) |
| Both teams to score 59.47% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.88% ( 0.16) | 43.12% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.48% ( 0.15) | 65.52% ( -0.15) |
| Charlton Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.61% ( -0.13) | 20.39% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.19% ( -0.21) | 52.81% ( 0.21) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.7% ( 0.34) | 25.3% ( -0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.93% ( 0.47) | 60.07% ( -0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Charlton Athletic | Draw | Exeter City |
| 2-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 8.2% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 6.52% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 4.75% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.46% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 3.27% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.89% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.3% ( -0)Other @ 2.88% Total : 42.6% | 1-1 @ 11.27% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.16% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 5.16% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.31% | 1-2 @ 7.75% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 7.09% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.87% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.55% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.82% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.58% Total : 33.08% |
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