With a newfound sense of confidence and a new striker in Bodvarsson firing on all cylinders, the stars are aligning for Burton to repeat last season's home trick over an ailing Reading side.
There may be 13 places and 20 points between the two clubs in the table, but the form book does not reflect that disparity, and Bowyer's men have our vote to prevail even if their familiar defensive struggles at home rear their ugly heads.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burton Albion win with a probability of 38.34%. A win for Reading had a probability of 35.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burton Albion win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.41%). The likeliest Reading win was 0-1 (8.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burton Albion would win this match.
0.01) 
-0.01) 
