Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 45.32%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 28.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.13%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
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