SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Austria | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Sweden | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Estonia | 8 | -20 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden win with a probability of 53.84%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Serbia had a probability of 21.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.27%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a Serbia win it was 0-1 (7.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sweden | Draw | Serbia |
53.84% ( 0.07) | 24.7% ( -0.05) | 21.46% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 48.71% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.19% ( 0.17) | 52.8% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.57% ( 0.15) | 74.43% ( -0.15) |
| Sweden Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.44% ( 0.1) | 19.56% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.52% ( 0.16) | 51.48% ( -0.15) |
| Serbia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.55% ( 0.07) | 39.44% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.86% ( 0.07) | 76.14% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sweden | Draw | Serbia |
| 1-0 @ 12.58% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 10.27% 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.59% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.2% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.42% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.28% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.12% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.85% Total : 53.83% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.72% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.83% Total : 24.7% | 0-1 @ 7.18% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 5.45% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.69% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.04% ( -0)Other @ 1.39% Total : 21.46% |
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