SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Austria | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Sweden | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Estonia | 8 | -20 | 1 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Albania | 8 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Czech Republic | 8 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Poland | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Moldova | 8 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | Faroe Islands | 8 | -11 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden win with a probability of 61.99%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Albania had a probability of 15.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.72%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.64%), while for an Albania win it was 0-1 (6.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sweden in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Sweden.
| Result | ||
| Sweden | Draw | Albania |
61.99% ( 2.2) | 22.81% ( -0.91) | 15.19% ( -1.29) |
| Both teams to score 43.39% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.87% ( 1.3) | 54.12% ( -1.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.45% ( 1.08) | 75.54% ( -1.08) |
| Sweden Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.96% ( 1.26) | 17.03% ( -1.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.81% ( 2.18) | 47.18% ( -2.19) |
| Albania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.3% ( -0.98) | 47.7% ( 0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.99% ( -0.73) | 83.01% ( 0.73) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sweden | Draw | Albania |
| 1-0 @ 14.38% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 12.72% ( 0.39)2-1 @ 9.42% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 7.51% ( 0.53)3-1 @ 5.56% ( 0.25)4-0 @ 3.32% ( 0.36)4-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 1.18% ( 0.17)4-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.47% Total : 61.98% | 1-1 @ 10.64% ( -0.4) 0-0 @ 8.13% ( -0.42)2-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.55% Total : 22.81% | 0-1 @ 6.02% ( -0.49) 1-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.26)0-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.25)1-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.04% Total : 15.19% |
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