SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 47.36%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 30.6% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.16%) and 0-2 (5.93%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 2-1 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Chelsea | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
30.6% ( 3.64) | 22.04% ( 0.46) | 47.36% ( -4.11) |
| Both teams to score 66.67% ( 1.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.82% ( 0.3) | 33.18% ( -0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.07% ( 0.35) | 54.93% ( -0.35) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.06% ( 2.4) | 21.94% ( -2.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.78% ( 3.51) | 55.22% ( -3.51) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.41% ( -1.22) | 14.59% ( 1.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.33% ( -2.41) | 42.67% ( 2.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chelsea | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 7.09% ( 0.55) 1-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.26)2-0 @ 3.68% ( 0.43)3-1 @ 3.58% ( 0.51)3-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.35)3-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.33)4-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.27)4-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.21)Other @ 3.41% Total : 30.6% | 1-1 @ 9.35% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 6.82% ( 0.25)0-0 @ 3.2% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.14)Other @ 0.46% Total : 22.04% | 1-2 @ 9% ( -0.31) 0-1 @ 6.16% ( -0.39)0-2 @ 5.93% ( -0.66)1-3 @ 5.77% ( -0.47)2-3 @ 4.38% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 3.81% ( -0.61)1-4 @ 2.78% ( -0.37)2-4 @ 2.11% ( -0.11)0-4 @ 1.83% ( -0.39)1-5 @ 1.07% ( -0.2)3-4 @ 1.07% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.48% Total : 47.36% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Manchester CityMan City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Brentford | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Fulham | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Bournemouth | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 17 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Everton | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 19 | Luton TownLuton | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 |
| 20 | Burnley | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 0 |
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