SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 54.69%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Cardiff City had a probability of 21.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Cardiff City win it was 0-1 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Leeds United | Draw | Cardiff City |
54.69% ( 0.09) | 23.31% ( -0.07) | 21.99% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 53.67% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.42% ( 0.29) | 46.58% ( -0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.15% ( 0.27) | 68.85% ( -0.28) |
| Leeds United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.09% ( 0.14) | 16.91% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.03% ( 0.24) | 46.97% ( -0.25) |
| Cardiff City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.59% ( 0.14) | 35.41% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.83% ( 0.15) | 72.17% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Leeds United | Draw | Cardiff City |
| 1-0 @ 10.64% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 9.46% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.6% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.02% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.58% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.49% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.34% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.01% Total : 54.69% | 1-1 @ 11.04% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 5.99% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 5.1% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.3% | 0-1 @ 6.22% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 5.74% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.12% Other @ 1.95% Total : 21.99% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Liverpool | 20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 43 | 18 | 25 | 45 |
| 2 | Manchester CityMan City | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 23 | 25 | 43 |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 42 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 20 | 17 | 40 |
| 5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 39 |
| 6 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 34 |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 33 | 5 | 31 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 31 |
| 9 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 31 |
| 10 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 29 |
| 11 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 28 |
| 12 | Bournemouth | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 25 |
| 13 | Fulham | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 24 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 21 |
| 15 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 20 |
| 16 | Brentford | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 19 |
| 17 | Everton | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 16 |
| 18 | Luton TownLuton | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 16 |
| 19 | Burnley | 21 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 21 | 42 | -21 | 12 |
| 20 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 49 | -34 | 9 |
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