SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 76.09%. A draw had a probability of 15% and a win for Torquay United had a probability of 8.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.07%) and 1-0 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.06%), while for a Torquay United win it was 0-1 (2.76%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Torquay United |
76.09% ( 0.04) | 14.97% ( -0.02) | 8.93% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 49.22% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.41% ( 0.04) | 35.59% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.35% ( 0.04) | 57.64% ( -0.04) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.22% ( 0.01) | 7.77% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 72.37% ( 0.04) | 27.62% ( -0.05) |
| Torquay United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.36% ( -0.02) | 46.63% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.79% ( -0.01) | 82.2% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Torquay United |
| 2-0 @ 11.82% 3-0 @ 10.07% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 9.26% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.02% ( -0)3-1 @ 7.68% ( 0)4-0 @ 6.43% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.91% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.93% 5-1 @ 2.51% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.87% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.4% ( 0)6-1 @ 1.07% ( 0)5-2 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 2.87% Total : 76.08% | 1-1 @ 7.06% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.62% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.44% ( -0)Other @ 0.84% Total : 14.97% | 0-1 @ 2.76% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 2.69% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 2.42% Total : 8.93% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arsenal | 32 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 77 | 34 | 43 | 75 |
| 2 | Manchester CityMan City | 30 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 78 | 28 | 50 | 70 |
| 3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 31 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 54 | 25 | 29 | 59 |
| 4 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 59 |
| 5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 32 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 51 | 7 | 53 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 45 | 41 | 4 | 51 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 59 | 38 | 21 | 50 |
| 8 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 54 | 37 | 17 | 49 |
| 9 | Fulham | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 45 |
| 10 | Brentford | 32 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 48 | 43 | 5 | 44 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 39 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 37 |
| 13 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 27 | 44 | -17 | 34 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 31 | 63 | -32 | 33 |
| 16 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 41 | 62 | -21 | 29 |
| 17 | Leicester CityLeicester | 32 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 28 |
| 18 | Everton | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 46 | -22 | 28 |
| 19 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 27 |
| 20 | Southampton | 32 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 24 |
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