SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Spain | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Croatia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Albania | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 52.3%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 23.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 2-0 (8.89%). The likeliest Croatia win was 0-1 (6.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spain | Draw | Croatia |
52.3% ( -0.22) | 23.74% ( -0.04) | 23.96% ( 0.26) |
| Both teams to score 54.72% ( 0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.65% ( 0.43) | 46.35% ( -0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.36% ( 0.4) | 68.64% ( -0.4) |
| Spain Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.29% ( 0.08) | 17.7% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.64% ( 0.13) | 48.36% ( -0.13) |
| Croatia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.5% ( 0.46) | 33.5% ( -0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.86% ( 0.5) | 70.14% ( -0.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spain | Draw | Croatia |
| 1-0 @ 10.26% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 9.72% ( -0)2-0 @ 8.89% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 5.61% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.13% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.07% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.43% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.22% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.33% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.64% Total : 52.29% | 1-1 @ 11.23% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.93% ( -0.11)2-2 @ 5.32% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.74% | 0-1 @ 6.49% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.14% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.94% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.32% Total : 23.96% |
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