SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 51.85%. A win for FC Midtjylland had a probability of 24.19% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.69%) and 0-2 (8.91%). The likeliest FC Midtjylland win was 1-0 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Midtjylland | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
24.19% ( 0.22) | 23.96% ( -0.02) | 51.85% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 54.26% ( 0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.91% ( 0.28) | 47.08% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.67% ( 0.26) | 69.32% ( -0.26) |
| FC Midtjylland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.29% ( 0.34) | 33.7% ( -0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.64% ( 0.37) | 70.36% ( -0.38) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.85% ( 0.03) | 18.15% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.88% ( 0.05) | 49.12% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Midtjylland | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 6.65% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 6.17% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 3.62% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.24% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.31% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.28% Total : 24.19% | 1-1 @ 11.35% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.12% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 5.27% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.96% | 0-1 @ 10.43% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 9.69% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 8.91% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 5.51% ( 0)0-3 @ 5.07% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 2.35% ( 0)0-4 @ 2.16% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.45% Total : 51.84% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Manchester CityMan City | 35 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 92 | 31 | 61 | 85 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 36 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 83 | 42 | 41 | 81 |
| 3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 36 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 69 |
| 4 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 66 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 65 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 35 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 67 | 49 | 18 | 58 |
| 7 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 65 | 59 | 6 | 57 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 57 |
| 9 | Brentford | 36 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 54 | 45 | 9 | 53 |
| 10 | Fulham | 36 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 51 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 43 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 43 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 40 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 36 | 11 | 6 | 19 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 39 |
| 15 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 37 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 67 | -31 | 34 |
| 17 | Everton | 36 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 32 | 56 | -24 | 32 |
| 18 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 36 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 71 | -25 | 31 |
| 19 | Leicester CityLeicester | 36 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 49 | 67 | -18 | 30 |
| R | Southampton | 36 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 66 | -35 | 24 |
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