SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 42.24%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 32.37% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 0-1 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitesse would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitesse | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
42.24% ( -0.55) | 25.39% ( 0.12) | 32.37% ( 0.44) |
| Both teams to score 55.46% ( -0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.76% ( -0.37) | 48.24% ( 0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.61% ( -0.34) | 70.39% ( 0.34) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.27% ( -0.42) | 22.74% ( 0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.59% ( -0.63) | 56.42% ( 0.64) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.78% ( 0.11) | 28.23% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.07% ( 0.13) | 63.93% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitesse | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 1-0 @ 9.51% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.91% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 7.04% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 4.4% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 3.48% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.19% Total : 42.24% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.39% | 0-1 @ 8.12% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 7.61% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 5.13% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 3.21% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.38% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.75% Total : 32.37% |
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