SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 57.97%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 19.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.51%), while for a Willem II win it was 0-1 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sparta Rotterdam would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Willem II |
57.97% ( 0.23) | 22.23% ( -0.09) | 19.8% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 53.86% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.29% ( 0.18) | 44.71% ( -0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.93% ( 0.17) | 67.07% ( -0.17) |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.86% ( 0.14) | 15.14% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.28% ( 0.26) | 43.71% ( -0.26) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.47% ( -0.05) | 36.52% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.69% ( -0.05) | 73.31% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Willem II |
| 1-0 @ 10.43% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.93% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 9.85% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.95% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.93% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.58% Total : 57.96% | 1-1 @ 10.51% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.53% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0)Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.23% | 0-1 @ 5.57% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 5.29% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 2.8% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0)0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.74% Total : 19.8% |
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