SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 75.43%. A draw had a probability of 14.5% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 10.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.87%) and 3-0 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.45%), while for a Vitesse win it was 1-2 (3%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Vitesse |
75.43% ( -0.92) | 14.48% ( 0.5) | 10.09% ( 0.41) |
| Both teams to score 56.72% ( -0.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.15% ( -1.33) | 28.85% ( 1.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.21% ( -1.65) | 49.79% ( 1.64) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.61% ( -0.45) | 6.39% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 76.04% ( -1.26) | 23.96% ( 1.25) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.59% ( -0.24) | 39.41% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.89% ( -0.22) | 76.1% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Vitesse |
| 2-0 @ 9.52% ( 0.25) 2-1 @ 8.87% ( 0.18)3-0 @ 8.73% ( 0)3-1 @ 8.13% ( -0.05)1-0 @ 6.92% ( 0.36)4-0 @ 6.01% ( -0.16)4-1 @ 5.59% ( -0.18)3-2 @ 3.79% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 3.3% ( -0.18)5-1 @ 3.08% ( -0.19)4-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.1)6-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.12)5-2 @ 1.43% ( -0.1)6-1 @ 1.41% ( -0.12)Other @ 4.52% Total : 75.43% | 1-1 @ 6.45% ( 0.29) 2-2 @ 4.13% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 2.52% ( 0.19)3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.21% Total : 14.48% | 1-2 @ 3% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 2.34% ( 0.16)2-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.44% Total : 10.09% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 26 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 59 | 25 | 34 | 61 |
| 2 | Ajax | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 72 | 28 | 44 | 55 |
| 3 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 51 | 28 | 23 | 53 |
| 4 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 25 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 66 | 30 | 36 | 52 |
| 5 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 27 | 14 | 46 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 44 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 38 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 26 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 35 | 26 | 9 | 34 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 34 |
| 10 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 32 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 29 |
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
| 13 | FC VolendamVolendam | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 56 | -25 | 26 |
| 14 | Vitesse | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 23 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 23 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 21 |
| 17 | Groningen | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 25 | 52 | -27 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 26 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 20 | 49 | -29 | 16 |
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