Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 48.23%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 26.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.43%) and 0-2 (8.33%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-0 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitesse would win this match.
